Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP): A Bear Case Theory

Core Thesis - Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) is viewed negatively due to its underlying unit economics and capital-intensive business model, despite attractive headline metrics [1][8]. Company Overview - Jefferson Capital is a newly public company that specializes in purchasing charged-off consumer debt, with a majority ownership of 67% by J.C. Flowers [2]. - The company targets to buy defaulted loan portfolios at approximately 5–6% of their face value, aiming for a 2x gross recovery multiple through various collection methods [2]. Financial Metrics - JCAP's share price was $22.07 as of February 11th, with a trailing P/E ratio of 9.26 [1]. - The company has reported a levered free cash flow yield of around 20% and a year-over-year operating income growth of 39% [3]. Unit Economics - Mature vintages from 2017–2020 achieved about 2x gross recoveries and over 27% IRRs before operating costs, but cash operating expenses average around 40% of collections [4]. - After accounting for these costs, the implied unlevered returns drop to the high single digits [4]. Valuation Concerns - Even with a 60% after-tax recovery margin, modeled equity values are estimated between $300 million and $400 million, after deducting $1.3–1.4 billion in liabilities, indicating limited upside compared to current valuations [5]. - Although JCAP appears inexpensive relative to peers like Encore Capital and PRA Group, its capital-intensive model resembles a capital-recycling operation rather than a true compounding business [5]. Reinvestment and Governance - Nearly all excess cash flow must be reinvested to maintain portfolio size, as demonstrated by a $300 million loan book purchase in late 2025 [6]. - Sustainable through-cycle return on equity (ROE) is likely in the range of 12–13%, and governance is heavily influenced by its private equity sponsor, suggesting a valuation closer to book value rather than its current premium [6].