MGM Resorts International (MGM): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - MGM Resorts International presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by multiple near- and long-term catalysts despite a temporary slowdown in Las Vegas tourism and room remodels at MGM Grand in 2025 [1] Share Buybacks and Earnings - MGM is aggressively buying back 7-8% of its shares annually, funded by a business generating a 14.2% Owner Earnings yield [2] - BetMGM, the company's digital sports betting and iGaming joint venture, turned profitable in 2025, distributing $100 million back to MGM and setting the stage for $125-200 million in cash distributions in 2026 [2] Near-Term Catalysts - The Northfield Park sale, closing in the first half of 2026, will inject $420 million of proceeds for share repurchases [3] - Stabilization of Las Vegas Strip operations is expected as MGM Grand's remodels are completed, conventions return, and RevPAR growth resumes [3] - MGM China's ongoing recovery continues to provide $200-300 million in annual dividends, further funding capital returns [3] Long-Term Potential - MGM's 42.5% stake in Osaka represents a future $350-450 million annual Owner Earnings contribution, supported by monopoly positioning and a lower tax rate relative to Macau [4] - GAAP net income is expected to swing from loss to profit in 2026 as one-time charges abate, attracting investor attention [4] Valuation and Target Price - At the current share price, MGM trades at roughly 7x Owner Earnings with significant buyback acceleration underway [5] - With stabilized core operations, growing digital cash flows, and Osaka's long-term potential, MGM Resorts offers an attractive risk/reward profile with a bullish target of Buy up to $46 per share [5] Historical Context - MGM's stock price has appreciated by approximately 38.25% since previous bullish coverage, highlighting its asset-light transition, strong brand, and disciplined buybacks [6]