Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD) is positioned for significant growth, targeting to double its revenue to $6 billion by 2030, supported by a strong backlog and favorable market conditions [2][4] Company Overview - Construction Partners, Inc. operates in civil infrastructure, focusing on roadway construction and maintenance across several states including Alabama, Florida, and Texas [2] - As of February 19th, ROAD's share price was $131.21, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 60.60 and 44.05 respectively [1] Growth Strategy - The company aims for a revenue growth of 54% to $2.8 billion in FY2025, leveraging its $3.03 billion backlog and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) [2] - ROAD's growth strategy heavily relies on acquisitions, which poses a risk if M&A activity slows down [2] Market Positioning - ROAD benefits from its strategic positioning in the Sunbelt region, where population growth is above the national average, ensuring a stable demand for road maintenance [3] - The company operates a vertically integrated model, owning over 90 asphalt plants and aggregate facilities, which enhances its competitive edge and mitigates supply chain risks [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 grew by 92%, with management targeting an increase in margins from 15.1% to 17% by 2030 through acquisitions and optimizing existing plant capacity [4] Capital Deployment - The company focuses on accretive acquisitions at low multiples, although it currently has debt levels at approximately 185% of equity [5] - In a favorable scenario, consolidating the Sunbelt could lead to revenues exceeding $10 billion with margins of 18% [5] Market Perception - The current market perception undervalues ROAD's logistics and manufacturing capabilities, presenting a compelling risk/reward opportunity for investors [6]