Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Blue Owl Capital Inc. is positioned as a stable alternative asset manager, focusing on permanent capital and predictable fee streams, which resembles a regulated utility rather than a traditional private equity manager [2][5] Financial Performance - As of February 24th, Blue Owl's share was trading at $10.73, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 145.91 and 15.43 respectively [1] - The firm manages approximately $307 billion in assets, with over 90% locked in long-duration or permanent vehicles, creating a robust revenue model [2] - The stock was trading near $12.30 in mid-February 2026, with a significant institutional investor selling January 2027 $8 puts, indicating a break-even near $7.25, reflecting a 35% margin of safety [3] Growth Drivers - A key growth driver is the expansion into private wealth channels, with dedicated products growing 66% year-over-year as individual investors seek yield beyond traditional portfolios [4] - Management has committed to a fixed annual dividend of $0.92 for 2026, equating to a yield of over 7% at current prices, potentially exceeding 11% if shares approach the $8 level [4] Market Positioning - The income profile of Blue Owl Capital creates a structural valuation floor in a yield-constrained environment, positioning the firm as a stable, compounding platform amid the normalization of private credit [5] - Blue Owl Capital is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 35 hedge fund portfolios holding OWL at the end of Q3, down from 40 in the previous quarter [7]