Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Mobileye Global Inc. is viewed positively due to its substantial $24.5 billion revenue pipeline for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous solutions, with significant revenue conversion expected from 2027 onwards [2][3] Revenue Pipeline - Mobileye has a locked-in revenue pipeline of $24.5 billion for advanced ADAS and autonomous solutions, with material conversion anticipated starting in 2027 [2] - The recent acquisition of Mentee Robotics for $900 million and a 9 million-unit ADAS deal with a major U.S. OEM have added complexity to the near-term outlook [2] Product Development and Strategy - The OEM deal supports Mobileye's strategy to transition from front-camera safety systems to full-surround, multi-sensor systems, integrating up to 11 sensors processed by a single EyeQ6H chip [3] - This strategy nearly doubles Mobileye's high-end pipeline to 19 million units, although revenue impact is back-loaded with series production targeted for H1 2028 [3] - Average selling price (ASP) for Surround systems is significantly higher at $150–$200 compared to $40–$50 for basic ADAS chips, indicating potential for long-term revenue growth [3] Mentee Robotics Acquisition - The acquisition of Mentee Robotics marks Mobileye's entry into the Physical AI market, aiming to leverage humanoid robots to enhance perception and decision-making algorithms beyond automotive applications [4] - While the acquisition creates technical synergy, commercialization risks are high, with revenue contributions not expected until 2028 and meaningful impact likely in 2030 and beyond [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitive pressures from NVIDIA's Alpamayo and execution risks contribute to a cautious outlook for Mobileye [5] - Despite the rebranding to "Mobileye 3.0," the core thesis remains focused on Mobileye's robust pipeline and technological advantages, justifying a long-term investment perspective [5]