Pembina Pipeline Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Core Insights - Pembina Pipeline reported a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of CAD 489 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately CAD 1.075 billion, with a full-year Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 4.289 billion, reflecting a record annual volume increase of about 3% compared to 2024 [4][3][7] - The decline in fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA by CAD 179 million, or 14%, year-over-year was primarily due to a lower contribution from marketing and new ventures, a new toll structure on the Alliance Pipeline, and a specific capital recovery that benefited the previous year [2][7] - Management reiterated 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of CAD 4.125–4.425 billion, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% in fee-based Adjusted EBITDA per share from 2023 to 2026 [6][11] Financial Performance - For the full year, Pembina achieved earnings of CAD 1.694 billion and adjusted cash flow from operating activities of CAD 2.854 billion, or CAD 4.91 per share [3] - Fourth-quarter results showed a decline in revenue from certain pipeline assets due to capital recoveries recognized in the previous year and lower interruptible volumes on the Goshen Pipeline [1][7] Growth Initiatives - Several growth projects are on time and on or under budget, including the RFS IV, Wapiti expansion, and K3 cogeneration, with more than 200,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity added [5][10] - The Cedar LNG project is over 35% complete, with long-term agreements signed to enhance financial contributions and validate demand for Canadian West Coast LNG [17] Contracting and Pipeline Expansions - Pembina renewed existing contracts and signed new contracts totaling over 200,000 barrels per day of conventional pipeline transportation capacity, including substantial renewals on the Peace Pipeline system [13][14] - The company announced expansions aimed at condensate and NGL transportation demand, with a total investment of CAD 625 million for three pipeline expansions [15] Future Outlook - Pembina expects its 2026 year-end debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio to be about 3.7x to 4.0x, with 2026 anticipated as the peak year for leverage [12] - Management is focused on optimizing capital deployment based on customer growth and has plans for further expansions in response to demand [16][19]