Sugar Prices Slightly Lower on Adequate Global Supplies

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are slightly lower, with May NY world sugar 11 down by 0.04 (-0.29%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 down by 0.20 (-0.05%) [1] - A forecast by the International Sugar Organization (ISO) indicates a sugar surplus of +1.22 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of -3.46 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Production Forecasts - ISO projects a +3.0% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to 181.3 million MT in 2025-26 [1] - Analysts from Czarnikow expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million MT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 million MT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists forecast a 2.74 million MT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX anticipates a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million MT in 2025/26 [2] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South fell by 36% year-on-year in the second half of January to only 5,000 MT, although cumulative output for 2025-26 is up by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 million MT [3] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil increased to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25 [3] Group 4: Market Positioning - Funds have significantly increased their short positions in NY sugar futures, reaching a record high of 265,324 net short positions, which could lead to a short-covering rally [4] Group 5: Brazil's Future Production and Exports - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado predicts Brazil's sugar production will decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million MT in 2026/27 from 43.5 million MT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 million MT [5] Group 6: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projects India's sugar production for 2025/26 at 29.3 million MT, a 12% year-on-year increase, but below an earlier estimate of 30.95 million MT [6] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 was reported to be up +22% year-on-year to 15.9 million MT [6] - ISMA has revised its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India down to 3.4 million MT from a previous forecast of 5 million MT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]