智通财经网·2026-03-01 09:32Core Viewpoint - The situation in Iran has escalated into a military conflict as of February 28, with significant implications for global markets, potentially resembling a larger version of the "Twelve-Day War" of June 2025, depending on key signals such as U.S. military movements, changes in Iranian politics, and the extent of conflict spillover [1][2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - On February 28, Israel and the U.S. announced military actions against Iran, marking the onset of military conflict after unsuccessful nuclear negotiations [2]. - The U.S. has conducted three rounds of indirect negotiations with Iran since 2026, focusing on nuclear issues, weapon arrangements, and sanctions, but no substantial breakthroughs have been achieved [2]. Group 2: Key Signals for Market Impact - Signal 1: The scale of U.S. military mobilization will determine the duration of the conflict. Current U.S. military deployments around Iran are comparable to those during the 1998 "Desert Fox" operation, which involved limited airstrikes without ground combat [3]. - Signal 2: The stability of Iran's internal politics will influence the extent of conflict escalation. Recent statements regarding the health of Iran's Supreme Leader could lead to significant political changes [3][4]. - Signal 3: Iran's retaliatory actions against key oil facilities and shipping routes will impact market volatility. Reports indicate that oil tanker transport through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted due to safety concerns amid escalating tensions [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Patterns - Historical analysis of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970 shows that gold is a more effective safe-haven asset compared to the U.S. dollar during wartime [5]. - Oil prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with historical crises indicating that significant price increases (over 50%) could trigger economic recessions in the U.S. [6]. - U.S. stock market reactions vary based on military involvement; if the U.S. does not engage directly, market sentiment typically stabilizes within a week, whereas direct involvement prolongs recovery [6].