Jin Rong Jie·2026-03-02 01:41Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to an increase in coal prices, as rising oil prices could positively impact coal demand and pricing [1] - The report highlights the historical price correlation between oil and coal, noting that the price ratio has remained stable between 2 to 3 over the past two years, indicating a potential short-term linkage between the two commodities [1] - The Middle East is a major source of methanol imports for China, with over 70% of imports expected to come from this region by 2025, suggesting that disruptions in logistics could further increase domestic demand for coal-based methanol [1] Group 2 - Apart from geopolitical factors, the reduction in coal supply from Indonesia is also a significant support for current coal prices, as the Indonesian government has been cutting coal production quotas, tightening supply for China and driving up prices for Australian coal imports [2] - The report forecasts that the price of North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal may rise above 800 RMB per ton within a month, with an average price expected to exceed 750 RMB per ton in the second quarter [2] - The report recommends investing in undervalued companies with coal chemical operations and those with a relatively high proportion of chemical coal sales, as well as companies with coal resources in Indonesia [2]