US bank downgrades Centrica, citing lack of near-term catalysts

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Centrica PLC from 'buy' to 'hold' due to the stock's strong performance this year, which has led to a fully valued status amid limited near-term growth and declining earnings momentum [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Centrica's shares have increased by over 10% in 2026 and are currently trading at approximately 10 times its estimated 2030 earnings, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile rather than a strong buying opportunity [2]. - Jefferies has raised its price target for Centrica by 5% to 210p, suggesting only a 7% upside from the current price of 196p [2]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates - Jefferies has reduced its earnings per share estimate for 2026 by 17%, primarily due to £100 million in higher net interest costs than previously anticipated, which aligns with company guidance [3]. - The EBITDA estimate for 2026 has been cut by 1% [3]. Group 3: Growth and Investment Concerns - Jefferies expresses caution regarding Centrica's growth trajectory beyond 2028, noting that the company has set a 2030 EBITDA target of around £2 billion and earnings per share of approximately 22p, supported by a £4 billion investment plan from 2024 to 2028 [4]. - The broker estimates that over £1 billion of capital from 2026 to 2030 remains unallocated, attributing less value to this spending compared to management's projections [4]. Group 4: Management and Market Position - Management has downplayed the likelihood of further share buybacks in the near term, which could have provided additional support for the stock [5]. - Jefferies sees more attractive opportunities in the European utilities sector, particularly among companies with greater exposure to power grids and increasing electricity demand [5]. - The broker's 2030 earnings per share forecast of 20p is below Centrica's own implied guidance of around 22p [5].