Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that after the Lunar New Year holiday, the performance of Chinese H-share insurance companies has lagged behind the market due to concerns over short-term profit risks, lack of data points, and macroeconomic trends post-holiday [1] - Key catalysts expected to revive the sector include discussions on enhancing shareholder total returns, optimistic guidance from management regarding life insurance sales prospects for FY2026, robust solvency capital status for Q4 2025, decreasing funding costs, and increased confidence in the recovery of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) [1] - The preference is given to China Ping An (02318) for its life insurance sales recovery and attractive valuation, as well as China Life (02628) for its strong life insurance sales growth outlook and discussions on enhancing shareholder returns [1] Group 2 - The firm believes that insurance companies are not required to issue profit forecasts unless there is a change in annual net profit exceeding 50%, with projected net profit growth for China Life, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) at 47%, 19%, and 10% respectively for FY2025 [2] - The focus is on sustainable earnings growth leading to per-share dividend increases, and the increased volatility of net profit under new accounting standards has made companies more cautious about voluntarily issuing profit forecasts [2] - The current market consensus for FY2026 net profit forecasts shows a projected decline of 9%, indicating limited risk for further downward adjustments at this stage [2]
小摩:中资保险股落后大市 偏好中国平安(02318)及中国人寿