Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-03-04 06:33Core Viewpoint - The overall decline in February PMI is primarily influenced by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, with both supply and demand experiencing a temporary slowdown. Production activities and order indicators have declined in tandem, but the extent of the decline is consistent with historical seasonal patterns. [2] Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index is at 48.2% (previously 48.8%), and the service business activity index is at 49.7% (previously 49.5%) [1] - The production index for February is at 49.6% (previously 50.6%), and the new orders index is at 48.6% (previously 49.2%), indicating a decline in both supply and demand [3] - The operating rate has decreased due to the holiday impact, with the high-frequency data showing a drop in the rebar operating rate by 3.49 percentage points to 39.51%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate declining by 17.41 percentage points to 36.34% [3] Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The factory price index remains unchanged at 50.6%, while the raw material purchase price has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 54.8%, indicating a reduction in upstream cost pressures [4] - The gap between purchase prices and factory prices is currently 4.2 percentage points, suggesting that corporate profits are still under some cost pressure, although this gap has shown signs of narrowing [4] Group 3: Inventory Trends - The finished goods inventory index has decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 45.8%, while the raw material inventory has increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 47.5%. The purchasing index has declined by 0.5 percentage points to 48.2% [4] - Companies are adopting a cautious "production based on sales" strategy, leading to a relatively tight balance in overall inventory levels [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the effects of the Spring Festival gradually dissipate, manufacturing production activities are expected to recover in March, with both the production index and new orders index anticipated to rise [2] - External demand remains resilient, as indicated by the OECD composite leading indicators pointing towards a mild upward trend in exports year-on-year until June [2]