Cardano’s Bullish Divergence Fired and Failed — $540 Million in Whale Selling To Blame?

Core Insights - The Cardano price exhibited a bullish divergence on the daily chart, surging 24% before experiencing a significant decline, indicating a complex market dynamic involving both retail and whale activities [1][3]. Price Movement and Technical Indicators - A bullish divergence was established on Cardano's daily chart between December 31, 2025, and February 24, 2026, where the price printed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low, signaling weakening bearish momentum [2]. - On February 25, Cardano's price surged nearly 24%, reaching approximately $0.31, but showed signs of aggressive selling as indicated by a long upper wick on the candlestick [3]. - The Money Flow Index (MFI) confirmed the bullish setup, indicating genuine buying pressure as both price and MFI trended higher together from February 24 to 28, with no bearish divergence present [4]. Whale Activity and Market Dynamics - Despite the initial surge, Cardano's price fell 17% shortly after the peak, attributed to significant whale selling activity. Over 2 billion ADA were distributed among major whale cohorts between February 24 and 27 [5]. - The largest whale cohort, holding over 1 billion ADA, executed a significant exit, shedding approximately 1.02 billion tokens in a single day, reducing their holdings from 2.90 billion to 1.88 billion ADA [6]. - The cohort holding between 100 million to 1 billion ADA initially absorbed some selling pressure but reversed course by February 27, reducing their holdings by approximately 860 million tokens from 3.47 billion to 2.61 billion ADA [6].