智通财经网·2026-03-04 08:59Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will range between $75 and $90 per barrel by March 2026, with short-term price volatility expected due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - In February, the average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.4 and $64.5 per barrel, reflecting increases of 7.2% and 7.1% respectively [1] - The recent trends in international oil prices are closely linked to geopolitical situations in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran's oil production and its control over the Strait of Hormuz [1] - As of January 2026, Iran's oil production and export levels were reported at 3.3 million and 1.53 million barrels per day respectively [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Supply - Even if oil cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, it will lead to significant supply delays and increased transportation costs, thereby raising global energy prices [2] - By early March, Brent crude oil prices exceeded $80 per barrel, reflecting market expectations of potential losses in Middle Eastern oil supply [2] - Future price movements will depend on the evolution of geopolitical situations; if U.S.-Iran negotiations progress and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, prices may fall to the $60-$70 per barrel range [2] Group 3: Domestic Oil Demand and Supply in China - In 2025, China's apparent crude oil demand is expected to improve, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3] - China's crude oil production is projected to reach 216 million tons in 2025, marking a 1.5% increase, while crude oil imports are expected to be 578 million tons, up 4.4% [3] - The apparent consumption of crude oil in China is forecasted to be 789 million tons in 2025, with a dependency on foreign oil remaining high at 73.2% [3] Group 4: Natural Gas and Refined Oil Demand - China's apparent natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, reaching 4,322 billion cubic meters [4] - Natural gas production is projected to be 2,619 billion cubic meters, a 6.3% increase, while imports are expected to decline by 2.7% [4] - In contrast, China's apparent demand for refined oil is anticipated to decrease by 1.5% in 2025, with production and consumption also showing declines [5]