Will Petrobras Pull Off Q4 Earnings Beat on Strong Production?

Core Viewpoint - Petrobras is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 5, with a consensus estimate of 57 cents per share in profit and revenues of $23.1 billion [1]. Group 1: Q3 Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Petrobras achieved earnings per ADS of 82 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents, while revenues of $23.5 billion fell short of expectations by 1% due to declining oil prices [2]. - Petrobras has beaten the consensus estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 1.2% [3]. Group 2: Q4 Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged over the past week, indicating a year-over-year increase of 16.3%, while revenue estimates suggest a 10.8% improvement from the previous year [3]. Group 3: Production and Operational Factors - A significant factor for Petrobras' fourth-quarter performance is the ramp-up of high-productivity offshore assets, particularly in the pre-salt region, with average production reaching 3,109 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), where pre-salt output accounted for approximately 82% of total production [4]. - Despite strong upstream performance, Petrobras faced challenges in refining, with the refining system utilization factor dropping to 89% from 94% in the previous quarter, leading to declines in the production of key refined products such as diesel (-7.6%), gasoline (-1.0%), and jet fuel (-12.4%) [5]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Petrobras, as the Earnings ESP stands at 0.00%, with both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate at 57 cents per share [6][8].