Coal, aluminium, gold will likely gain from Iran war

Core Insights - Coal prices have risen by 18%, aluminium rates by 6%, and gold is expected to reach new highs due to geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf involving the US, Israel, and Iran [1][4] - Gold prices initially surged to over $5,350 per ounce but fell below $5,200 due to a strong dollar and interest rate hike fears [2] - Analysts indicate that recent gold selling is driven by investors needing cash for liquidity, although structural drivers for gold remain strong [3] Gold Market - BMI forecasts gold could reach an all-time high above $5,600 per ounce if geopolitical tensions persist [1][4] - The uncertainty regarding the duration of the geopolitical risk premium is a key factor driving gold prices higher [5] - Potential disruptions in the bullion market due to flight restrictions through Dubai could bolster bullish sentiment for gold [6] Aluminium Market - The escalation of conflict in the Persian Gulf has increased upside risks for physical aluminium premiums, with the Middle East accounting for about 8% of global aluminium capacity [8] - BMI expects aluminium prices to remain near $3,350 per tonne, with significant upside risks if tensions escalate further [11][12] - Qatar's production halt due to regional tensions is expected to impact aluminium supply, potentially leading to price increases [11] Coal Market - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to increased demand for seaborne thermal coal, particularly in Japan and South Korea [13] - Gas prices have spiked, and if Qatari LNG availability is constrained, thermal coal may benefit as a substitute [14] - Newcastle thermal coal futures reached $138 per tonne, a 16-month high, with Australian and Indonesian coal prices rising by 15% since the beginning of the week [15][16]