The 4% rule is done — 5 signs your $1 million retirement portfolio can survive the new withdrawal reality

Core Insights - The traditional belief that a million-dollar portfolio guarantees a comfortable retirement is being challenged by new economic realities [3][4] - The safe withdrawal rate for new retirees has decreased to 3.9% for 2026, resulting in a first-year withdrawal of $39,000 from a $1 million portfolio [4][7] Retirement Costs - Healthcare expenses are a significant factor, with an average 65-year-old couple needing approximately $345,000 saved for healthcare throughout retirement, a nearly 5% increase from the previous year [5][6] - Healthcare costs can consume over one-third of a $1 million nest egg, not accounting for dental, vision, or long-term care expenses [6] Income Sources - The average Social Security benefit in 2025 is projected to be about $2,000 monthly, or $24,000 annually per person, totaling roughly $48,000 for a married couple [7][8] - Combining the $39,000 from the portfolio and $48,000 from Social Security results in an annual retirement income of about $87,000, which can support a comfortable lifestyle for couples with modest spending needs [8] Geographic Considerations - The cost of living in retirement locations significantly impacts the sustainability of a million-dollar portfolio; it can support a comfortable lifestyle in low-cost areas but may be insufficient in high-cost cities like San Francisco, Miami, or New York City [9]