百济神州(688235)：业绩符合预期 全年催化剂丰富

Core Insights - The company reported 2025 revenue of $5.343 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase, with product revenue at $5.282 billion, also up 40% [1] - GAAP net profit reached $287 million, slightly below expectations due to a one-time equity investment impairment and non-recurring tax issues in Q4 2025; excluding these impacts, net profit is expected to meet projections [1] Revenue Growth - Zebutinib drove steady product revenue growth, with 2025 sales of $3.9 billion, a 49% increase year-over-year; quarterly sales were $790 million, $950 million, $1.04 billion, and $1.15 billion, with quarter-over-quarter changes of -4%, +20%, +10%, and +10% respectively [2] - Global sales of Tislelizumab reached $740 million in 2025, a 19% increase year-over-year; GAAP net profit of $287 million marked the first quarterly profit [2] Future Guidance - The company maintains strong growth guidance for 2026, projecting full-year revenue between $6.2 billion and $6.4 billion, a 16-20% increase; GAAP gross margin is expected to remain high at around 80% [2] - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be between $4.7 billion and $4.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11-16%; GAAP operating profit is expected to be between $700 million and $800 million [2] Upcoming Catalysts - The company anticipates several key catalysts in 2026, including potential approval for Sotorasib in R/R MCL in 1H26, and accelerated approval for BTK CDAC in R/R CLL based on Phase II data in 2H26 [3] - Phase III trials for CDK4 in 1L breast cancer are set to start in 1H26, with Phase I data expected to be disclosed in the same period; B7-H4 ADC Phase III trials will also commence within 12 months, with Phase I data to be released in 1H26 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering domestic healthcare price adjustments and cost control, the company has lowered its 2026 revenue forecast by 2.7% but maintains a profit forecast of $610 million, introducing a 2027 profit forecast of $870 million [4] - The company maintains an outperform rating, with target prices based on DCF model set at 320 CNY, 250 HKD, and 420 USD, representing upside potentials of 36.2%, 40.1%, and 41.4% respectively [4]