智通财经网·2026-03-05 05:55Core Viewpoint - The tightening of export controls on germanium and the ongoing supply shortage of upstream materials are expected to support the steady rise in optical fiber prices, driven by increased demand from AI infrastructure development, which may enhance the overall industry outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Supply Constraints - The export control on germanium, a critical dopant for optical fiber preform, is leading to a tightening supply in the upstream market [2][3]. - The global proven reserves of germanium are approximately 8,600 tons, with the United States holding 45% and China 41% of these reserves [1][2]. - The production cycle for optical preforms is lengthy, typically taking 1.5 to 2 years to reach stable mass production, contributing to the ongoing supply gap [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - The optical preform constitutes about 70% of the cost of optical fibers, and the rising costs of upstream materials, including germanium, are expected to further support price increases [3]. - The inability of optical preform production capacity to quickly respond to demand is leading to a persistent supply gap, reinforcing the upward price trend [3]. Group 3: Demand Growth - The optical fiber industry is entering a growth phase, driven by surging demand from AI data centers and international markets, particularly for specialized optical fibers [4]. - According to CRU reports, global demand for optical fibers and cables is projected to grow by 4.1% year-on-year by 2025, with data center demand expected to increase by 75.9% [4]. - Chinese optical fiber manufacturers are expanding their international presence, securing contracts in regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe, which enhances their competitive position [4].