Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-03-05 12:28Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector in A-shares has experienced significant volatility due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, prompting institutions to advise investors to differentiate between "emotional speculation" and "fundamental logic" [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of Middle East Conflict - The conflict has led to substantial disruptions in shipping routes, with China COSCO Shipping Group announcing the suspension of new bookings for several routes to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz [1][3]. - A senior industry insider indicated that all routes to the Middle East are currently suspended, with some vessels already turning back [2]. - The oil prices and war surcharges have increased, and the pricing model has shifted to "negotiated per customer" [2]. Group 2: Company Responses - China COSCO Shipping reported that its fleet has a total capacity of 135 million deadweight tons across 1,660 vessels, ranking first globally, and that its operations remain normal despite the conflict [3]. - China COSCO Shipping Energy stated that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted global energy transport, but its operations are currently unaffected [3]. - China COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers mentioned that the impact on revenue from the route adjustments is expected to be limited, as the Middle East shipping volume constitutes a small portion of its business [3]. - Other companies like Zhenhua Logistics and Shenghang Co. have also reported that their operations remain stable, with limited direct impact from the conflict [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The shipping sector has seen dramatic fluctuations, with the shipping index experiencing multiple reversals within a short period [6]. - Analysts from CITIC Futures noted that the recent surge in the shipping index was driven by the conflict, but the risk transmission path remains unclear due to differences in shipping routes [7]. - Huatai Securities highlighted that geopolitical events have led to a tightening of compliant market capacity, significantly driving up shipping rates [7]. - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund indicated that the VLCC market is experiencing unexpected demand due to the geopolitical situation, which may further elevate freight rates in the short term [8].