War Risk Is Real and QQQ Investors Simply Do Not Care

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising geopolitical tensions and significant increases in oil prices, retail investors in major AI stocks like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta remain bullish, showing little concern for potential risks associated with war and market volatility [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) has seen a decline of 0.71% over the past week and 1.08% over the past month, yet retail sentiment towards its top AI holdings remains positive [1]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is currently at 23.57, indicating heightened market uncertainty, yet retail investors are not selling their AI stocks [1]. - NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta collectively represent approximately 24.61% of QQQ, with NVIDIA being the largest holding at 8.63% [1]. Group 2: Company Earnings and Valuations - NVIDIA reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68.13 billion, a 73.2% increase year-over-year, with Data Center networking revenue surging 263% to $10.98 billion [1]. - Microsoft achieved over $50 billion in cloud revenue for the first time in a single quarter, with Azure growing by 39% [1]. - Meta announced a $100 billion AI deal with AMD, which briefly boosted weekly sentiment to 82, indicating strong investor confidence [1]. Group 3: Concerns and Skepticism - Despite strong earnings, there is skepticism among investors regarding whether current valuations are justified, particularly in light of geopolitical risks such as tensions over Taiwan [1]. - Alphabet's stock has underperformed, down 11.69% over the past month, and concerns about its vulnerability to competition from cheaper models from China have been raised [1]. - Insider selling, including a nearly $10 million stock sale by Alphabet's CEO, has contributed to anxiety among investors [1].