中国银河证券：设备更新政策继续推进 建议重点关注具身智能、低空经济等

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the continuation of a stable policy approach in the government work report, focusing on expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces [1] Group 1: Equipment Update Policies - The equipment update policy is set to continue, stimulating investment and demand release, with a planned allocation of 200 billion yuan for major technological upgrades by 2026 [1] - By 2024, China's railway locomotive fleet is expected to reach 22,500 units, with approximately 4,000 old diesel locomotives needing replacement, leading to a demand for about 2,000 new energy locomotives [1] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see stable domestic demand supported by equipment updates, with a replacement cycle of 8-10 years [1] Group 2: Focus on New Productive Forces - The report highlights the importance of nurturing emerging and future industries, encouraging state-owned enterprises to lead in application scenarios for sectors like integrated circuits and aerospace [2] - "Embodied intelligence" has been recognized for two consecutive years in government reports, indicating a shift from "cultivation" to "cultivation and development," suggesting increased investment opportunities in humanoid robotics [2] - The low-altitude economy is expected to gradually enter commercial operations, with significant investment opportunities in manufacturing and processing equipment for aircraft and components [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Equipment Updates - The central budget for investment in 2026 is set at 755 billion yuan, with long-term bonds allocated for construction and equipment updates remaining stable at 200 billion yuan [3] - The report indicates a positive outlook for domestic excavator sales in early 2026, with infrastructure investment and equipment updates expected to drive growth in the engineering machinery sector [3] - The ongoing recovery in domestic demand and the favorable conditions in the mining equipment sector are anticipated to create a resonance effect in both domestic and international sales [3]