Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-03-06 12:36Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W is expected to report a mixed performance for Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 772.10 to 931.00 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.7% to 5.2% [1][7]. Revenue Forecast - The predicted total revenue for Q4 2025 is between 772.10 and 931.00 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 907.19 billion RMB, indicating a 2.5% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The median revenue forecast is 916.75 billion RMB, representing a 3.6% increase year-on-year [2][8]. Profit Forecast - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between -204.60 and -104.39 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year decline of -428.8% to -267.8% [1][7]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to range from -189.50 to -131.00 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -292.4% to -232.7% [1][7]. Business Segment Analysis - Core Local Business: Expected revenue of 648 billion RMB, a decline of 1% year-on-year, with the food delivery segment projected to generate 391 billion RMB, down 11% [3][9]. - Flash Purchase Business: Anticipated revenue of 89 billion RMB, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase, with order volume expected to grow by 30% [4][10]. - In-store and Travel Business: Forecasted revenue of 162 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year, with Gross Transaction Value (GTV) expected to increase by 15% [4][11]. - New Business: Projected revenue of 268 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, but with an expected operating loss widening to 45 billion RMB [4][11]. Competitive Landscape - The company is increasing investments in its ecosystem to address competition in the instant retail sector, including enhanced marketing, rider incentives, and merchant support [3][9]. - The competitive pressure is expected to ease slightly in Q4 2025, with total revenue anticipated at 931 billion RMB, a 5.3% year-on-year growth [5][11]. Future Outlook - The adjusted net loss for Q4 2025 is expected to be 133 billion RMB, an improvement from 160 billion RMB in Q3 2025 [5][11]. - The company anticipates a reduction in unit economic losses in the food delivery segment from 2.6 RMB per order to 2 RMB per order due to decreased winter subsidies [5][11]. - For 2027, the adjusted net profit is projected to reach 234 billion RMB, with a target price of 84 HKD based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [5][11].