MEOH's Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y on Higher Volumes

Core Insights - Methanex Corporation (MEOH) reported a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of $89 million or $1.15 per share, a decline from a profit of $45 million or 67 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Adjusted loss per share was 14 cents, significantly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 81 cents [2] Financial Performance - Revenues increased by approximately 2% year over year to $968.8 million, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $994.4 million [3] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased around 17% year over year to $186 million [3] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at roughly $425.3 million at the end of the quarter, with cash flow from operating activities at $239 million [6] Operational Highlights - Production totaled 2,364,000 tons, up 26.7% year over year, exceeding the estimate of 2,338,000 tons [4] - Total sales volume in the fourth quarter was 2,689,000 tons, a 4.9% increase year over year, but missed the estimate of 2,809,000 tons [4] - The average realized price for methanol was $331 per ton, down from $370 per ton in the prior-year quarter and below the estimate of $343 [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates 2026 production to be approximately 9 million tons of methanol and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, subject to various operational factors [7] - MEOH expects modestly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by flat sales volume and a slightly higher average realized price projected between $330 and $340 per ton [8] Market Performance - Methanex shares have gained 35% over the past year, contrasting with a 12.3% decline in the industry [9]