Is the Middle East War Decreasing the Chances of Fed Rate Cuts This Year?

You might think the war in the Middle East and monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve wouldn't have much of a connection. You would be wrong. Fed watchers and futures markets are suddenly pricing in fewer rate cuts in 2026, partly as a result of the economic impact of the ongoing Iran war. Put differently, they're beginning to predict that the Fed's target interest rate -- the short-term federal funds rate, which sets the tone for all other interest rates -- will be higher by the end of 2026. W ...