247Wallst·2026-03-06 20:30Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500's first-quarter rebalance is anticipated to be announced, with Vertiv (VTR) as the leading candidate for inclusion, followed by SoFi (SOFI) and Lumentum (LITE) as potential additions [1] Group 1: S&P 500 Rebalance - The announcement of the S&P 500 index changes is expected to drive significant price movements for the stocks added, as index funds are required to purchase these stocks [1] - Vertiv is currently favored in prediction markets with a 71% probability of being added, while SoFi has a 24.5% chance, and Lumentum is viewed as a long shot [1] Group 2: Vertiv (VTR) - Vertiv's stock is trading at $248.96, reflecting a 53.7% increase year-to-date and a 203.88% rise over the past year [1] - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.88 billion, a 22.7% year-over-year increase, with organic orders surging 252% YoY and a backlog of $15.0 billion [1] - For 2026, management projects net sales between $13.25 billion and $13.75 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $5.97 to $6.07 [1] Group 3: SoFi (SOFI) - SoFi achieved its first-ever revenue exceeding $1 billion in Q4 2025, reporting $1.025 billion, with a membership growth of 35% year-over-year to 13.7 million [1] - The stock is currently priced at $19.16, down 26.82% year-to-date but up 53.89% over the past year, with a market cap of approximately $24.5 billion [1] Group 4: Lumentum (LITE) - Lumentum's shares are priced at $583.00, showing a 58.17% increase year-to-date and an impressive 854.33% rise over the past year [1] - The company reported Q4 revenue of $665.5 million, a 65.5% year-over-year increase, with forward guidance of $780 million to $830 million, indicating over 85% year-over-year growth [1] - Lumentum's market cap is approximately $46.5 billion, which is substantial but smaller than Vertiv's [1]