Bitcoin Price Still Risks Decline If Iran War Mirrors Ukraine War Market Reaction, JPMorgan Warns

Group 1 - JPMorgan analysts indicate that Bitcoin is at risk of decline despite a recent rally to $74,000 amid geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran [2][3] - The market's reaction to the Ukraine war serves as a historical reference, where risk assets, including Bitcoin, initially held value before experiencing significant declines [3][4] - Bitcoin's price surged nearly 40% at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, followed by a 67% drop, suggesting a similar pattern may occur with the current geopolitical situation [5][6] Group 2 - Recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major driver behind the recent price rebound, with daily net inflows reaching $458 million on the first trading day after the Iran war began [7][8] - Following the initial inflow, Bitcoin ETFs recorded additional net inflows of $225 million and $462 million on March 3 and 4, respectively, indicating strong investor interest [7] - The rebound in Bitcoin's price is also attributed to derivatives short covering, highlighting the complex dynamics influencing the cryptocurrency market [8]