Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 6, 2026

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.15% as of March 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year yield at 4.77% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date before a recession [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical trends, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo leading to stagflation [1] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates potential recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.00%, marking its second lowest level since September 2022 [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a major factor affecting market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]