Retail Sales Fall 0.2% in January, Less Than Expected

Core Insights - Retail sales in January 2026 decreased by 0.2%, which is better than the expected decline of 0.3% and follows a flat reading in December 2025 [1] - Total retail and food services sales for January 2026 were estimated at $733.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Retail trade sales also fell by 0.2% from December 2025 but showed a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] Retail Sales Breakdown - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, remained flat in January, unchanged from December's reading, and were lower than the expected growth of 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, core retail sales increased by 3.9% [1] - Retail sales control purchases, which exclude motor vehicles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, rose by 0.3% in January, surpassing the expected growth of 0.2% [1] Long-term Trends - Monthly retail sales have been above historical regression lines since March 2021, indicating sustained consumer spending likely due to pent-up demand from the pandemic [1] - Current control purchases are up 4.9% compared to one year ago, showing reduced volatility compared to headline retail sales [1] - The year-over-year percent change in retail sales indicates a consistent upward trend, with current sales up 3.2% compared to the previous year [1]