Soaring Crude Oil Prices Push Sugar Higher

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have recovered from early losses, supported by rising crude oil prices, with May NY world sugar 11 up by +0.08 (+0.58%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 up by +0.60 (+0.15%) [1] - The surge in WTI crude oil prices to a 13.5-month high may lead sugar mills to shift more cane crushing towards ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] Group 3: Production Insights - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a +1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected global production rise of +3.0% year-on-year to 181.3 million MMT [3] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of January fell by -36% year-on-year to 5,000 MT, although cumulative output through January is up by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - Safras & Mercado predicts Brazil's sugar production will decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] Group 4: India's Sugar Production - India's sugar output from October 1 to February 28 was up +12% year-on-year to 24.75 MMT, with a projected total production of 29.3 MMT for 2025/26, which is an increase of 12% year-on-year [6] - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has revised its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production down to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]