Veteran analyst cuts price target on top Bitcoin miner by 44%

Financial Performance - MARA Holdings reported a revenue of $202 million for Q4 2025, with a net loss of $4.52 in earnings per share (EPS), falling short of estimates in both cases [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was negative $1.48 million, a significant decline from positive $796 million a year earlier [2] Analyst Outlook - Brian Dobson, a managing director at Clear Street, lowered the price target on MARA stock from $16 to $9 while maintaining a Hold rating [3] - The 2027 EBITDA estimate for MARA was reduced from $571 million to $99 million [3] Valuation Methodology - The company is now valued using a sum-of-the-parts framework, with an 8x multiple applied to the reduced 2027 EBITDA estimate of $99 million, implying approximately $2 per share for mining operations [4] - The HPC partnership is valued at $7 per share, leading to the revised target of $9 [4] Strategic Changes - MARA has revised its 2026 policy to be open to selling Bitcoin held on its balance sheet due to liquidity and market crises [5] - The stock was trading at $8.55, down nearly 8% in a day at the time of reporting [5]