Move Over, Tariffs! If a Stock Market Crash Takes Shape Under President Donald Trump, These 2 Factors Are Likely the Cause.

分组1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing significant internal division, with dissent rates increasing among its voting members, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell having the lowest dissent rate since 1978 [1][6] - The FOMC is responsible for overseeing monetary policy, including adjustments to the federal funds target rate and open-market operations, which are crucial for stabilizing prices and maximizing employment [2] - Concerns are rising regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, as his hawkish stance on interest rates and critique of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to increased borrowing costs [7][9][10] 分组2 - The Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio indicates that the current stock market is historically overpriced, hovering between 39 and 41, which is the second-highest level in history, suggesting a potential market correction [16][17] - Historical data shows that when the Shiller P/E exceeds 30, significant declines in major indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have followed, with past drops ranging from 20% to 89% [17][18] - The expectation is that if the Shiller P/E remains above 27, the S&P 500 could lose at least a third of its value, indicating that high stock valuations, rather than trade policies, are more likely to trigger a market crash [18]