Group 1 - The upstream core raw material market in the textile and apparel industry is undergoing a supply-demand restructuring, with supply tightening and demand recovering, leading to a new prosperity cycle for wool [1][2] - From July 2025, the wool market entered a new price increase cycle, rising from 1208 AUD/kg to 1716 AUD/kg by February 27, 2026, a 45% year-on-year increase [2] - Global cotton production and consumption are stable, with the 2025/26 market year production expected to reach 26 million tons, a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year, supporting domestic cotton prices [3] Group 2 - The cost side is supported by rising crude oil prices, with Brent crude increasing from 61 USD/barrel to around 84 USD/barrel, driving up the cost center of the chemical fiber industry [4] - The processing price difference for polyester has steadily recovered from 1000-1100 CNY/ton to 1300-1500 CNY/ton, while nylon prices have room for further increases [4] - The price fluctuations of upstream raw materials directly impact the profit levels of companies in the textile industry, with wool price increases typically leading to higher profit margins for wool spinning companies [5][6]
中国银河证券:原料价格上行驱动上游纺织景气回升 国内棉花市场进入价格企稳阶段