Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage on Innovation Industry (02788) with a "strong buy" rating, highlighting the company's low-cost domestic production capacity and future profitability from its Saudi project, alongside a balanced supply-demand scenario in the electrolytic aluminum market, which is expected to maintain long-term prosperity [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented aluminum enterprise with an integrated and global layout, currently holding an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 788,100 tons and alumina capacity exceeding 3 million tons, with a projected power self-sufficiency rate of 88% by 2024 [1][2] - The company is strategically positioned with production bases in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, leveraging abundant coal resources to build self-supplied power plants, resulting in a projected power generation cost of only 0.37 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2024 [2] Group 2: Saudi Project - The "Saudi Red Sea Aluminum Industry Chain Comprehensive Project," with a total investment of approximately $1.835 billion, aims for an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 500,000 tons of aluminum processing, expected to commence production in 2027 [3] - The project benefits from low industrial electricity prices of only 3.2 cents per kilowatt-hour and tax incentives, positioning the company as one of the few Chinese enterprises with overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity, thus enhancing its growth potential [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity exceeds 45 million tons, with an operating rate of 98.3%, nearing capacity limits, while overseas production is slow due to power costs [4] - The demand from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to sustain a tight balance in supply and demand, with industry profitability projected to reach 5,793 yuan per ton by December 2025, marking a near 10-year high [4]
招商证券:首予创新实业(02788)“强烈推荐”投资评级 国内铝电一体化