Oil surged past $100 before coming back to Earth. Wall Street is bracing for what comes next.

Group 1 - Oil prices surpassed the $100-a-barrel mark, causing market anxiety, but G7 countries pledged to release strategic reserves, which helped ease prices [1] - Major stock indexes ended the day positively as oil prices declined, indicating resilience in the stock market despite oil market volatility [1] - Ed Yardeni increased the likelihood of a stock market meltdown from 20% to 35%, citing concerns over stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s oil crisis [2] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics believes fears of oil prices driving inflation are exaggerated due to a weak US labor market that cannot support significant price increases [2] - Samuel Tombs from Pantheon noted that higher inflation expectations are irrelevant if employers control wage settings and consumers reduce spending [3] - Energy economist Daniel Yergin expressed optimism about the global economy's resilience, suggesting it may withstand the current oil crisis better than anticipated [3] Group 3 - An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have more severe and lasting impacts on markets and the economy than a temporary price spike [4] - Historical data indicates that only significant and sustained increases in crude oil prices lead to persistent inflationary cycles, according to BofA analysts [4] - Governments are advising citizens on ways to mitigate the effects of rising oil prices, but practical implementation may be challenging due to inadequate public transportation in many US cities [5]