Trump Says Iran War 'Pretty Much' Over, But Tehran Says They Will Decide The End — Here's What Crypto Prediction Market Is Betting On

Group 1: Iran Conflict and Market Reactions - Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran's new supreme leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with Trump suggesting that U.S. approval will be necessary for the new leader to maintain power [1] - Trump indicated that the war against Iran is "pretty much" completed and could end sooner than expected, leading to a rise in stock markets and a 5% drop in oil prices [2][3] - The Revolutionary Guards of Iran asserted that they, rather than the U.S., would determine the end of the war, highlighting the ongoing tensions [1] Group 2: Market Predictions and Trends - Polymarket data shows a 73% chance that fighting will officially end by April 30, increasing to 82% by June 30, indicating market optimism regarding a resolution [3] - The odds of a formal declaration of the end of military actions by U.S. officials by March 31 have surged to 44%, up from 11% the previous day, reflecting changing market sentiments [4]