The 70% odds that say your portfolio isn't ready for the Iran conflict's escalation

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the ongoing Iran conflict could lead to stagflation or a global recession within the next week, indicating a significant shift in economic conditions [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.4% since the U.S.-China trade truce in May 2025 [1]. - Inflation has decreased to 2.4%, although it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1]. - Treasury yields have fallen from 4.37% to 4.14% [1]. - Stock markets, represented by SPX and DJIA, have increased by 17% and are only down 1% year-to-date [1]. - The U.S. dollar has softened during this period [1].