FedEx (FDX) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in FedEx's earnings despite an increase in revenues when the company reports its quarterly results for February 2026 [1] Earnings Expectations - FedEx is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 8.7% [3] - Revenues are projected to reach $23.58 billion, which is a 6.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.47% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for FedEx is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +2.84% [12] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, FedEx exceeded the expected earnings of $4.07 per share by delivering $4.82, resulting in a surprise of +18.43% [13] - Over the past four quarters, FedEx has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14] Predictive Indicators - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [10] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a solid Zacks Rank have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [10]