中国银河证券：业绩弹性释放 关注负债成本优化和中收潜力

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that while January's credit growth was slightly below expectations, the overall trend of stable growth and proactive policy implementation remains unchanged, with structural optimization being the main focus [1] Group 1: Credit Growth and Structure - January's credit growth was lower than expected due to factors such as debt resolution, weak demand, and delays in corporate financing [2] - It is anticipated that credit growth will accelerate as work resumes post-holiday, with a projected total credit increase of 16.31 trillion yuan for 2026, with Q1 expected to account for 65% of this increase, approximately 10.6 trillion yuan [2] - Structural optimization will be the main focus of credit policy, with significant resources directed towards expanding domestic demand, supporting technology innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [2] Group 2: Deposit Repricing and Earnings Resilience - The repricing of maturing deposits is expected to be a major source of earnings resilience, with a significant amount of long-term deposits maturing this year [3] - Approximately 54 trillion yuan of fixed deposits are expected to mature in 2026, with 23.4 trillion yuan being three-year deposits, which could positively impact net interest margins by 11.75 basis points [3] - The improvement in net interest margins is expected to be more pronounced in Q1, particularly for regional banks, although they may face higher pressures from deposit migration [3] Group 3: Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - The expansion of wealth management and non-interest income is anticipated, with a projected increase in non-interest income driven by scale expansion [4] - An estimated 2.1 trillion yuan of migrating deposits will be redirected towards investments, with a focus on wealth management products [4] - The bond market is expected to see a short-term recovery in Q1, although challenges may arise throughout the year due to an expanding loan-to-deposit gap [4] Group 4: Risk Management and Profitability - The risk of non-performing loans is expected to remain stable, with sufficient provisions in place to absorb potential losses [5] - The proportion of corporate real estate loans held by listed banks is low, and recent favorable policies for the real estate sector have led to a narrowing of credit spreads [5] - Overall, the profitability of listed banks is projected to improve, with Q1 performance expected to surpass that of the previous year, with revenue and net profit growth forecasted at 3.42% and 3.3% respectively for 2026 [6]