Week 11 CY26, Wrapped: Oil meme trade steals gold thunder; Iran scarier than thought; RBA hikes locked in

Group 1: Market Overview - The XJO index has seen a decline from a record high of 9,200 points to around 8,600 points due to geopolitical tensions following US and Israel's actions against Iran [2] - A surge in shipping insurance and disruptions in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have created a shipping crisis reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic [4] - Brent crude prices have risen above US$100 per barrel, contributing to expectations of rising interest rates from Australia's Big 4 banks and US investment banks [5] Group 2: Company Developments - Australian mattress company Koala plans to IPO next month despite the ongoing cost of living crisis and high interest rates, raising questions about the timing of this move [9] - Lynas Rare Earths has secured a deal with a Japanese-government-linked entity to supply thousands of tonnes of neodymium annually until the late 2030s at a price floor of US$110 per kilogram [10] - BHP Ltd is facing deteriorating negotiations with China over iron ore prices, while Rio Tinto is grappling with demands for higher payments from Mongolia's new government [10] Group 3: Trading Trends - A significant increase in retail traders participating in oil trading was noted when prices surpassed US$110 per barrel, indicating a blend of speculative and legitimate trading activity [10] - Gold prices have shown a tendency to dip whenever oil prices rise, suggesting a dynamic trading environment among commodity traders [10]