USD/JPY: Majority Sell Bias Increases as Intervention Talk Reemerges

Market Overview - Oil prices have surged due to fears surrounding supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, with WTI reaching highs of $97 before settling around $95, marking a significant increase in energy prices [1][2] - U.S. equity indices experienced a selloff, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%, Nasdaq 100 down 1.7%, and Dow 30 down 1.6%, as rising oil prices weighed on market sentiment [1][2] - Treasury yields have increased across the curve, reflecting rising inflation concerns, with market expectations indicating a hold on interest rates at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Company Performance - Nvidia shares fell by 1.5%, while AMD, TSM, and Intel saw larger declines of 3.5%, 5%, and 5.7% respectively, indicating a challenging session for semiconductor stocks [1] - Tesla's stock dropped 3.1% after a report indicated a shift in investment strategy, converting its xAI stake into a SpaceX investment ahead of the latter's IPO [1] - Fertilizer producers like CF Industries (+13.2%), Intrepid Potash (+10.6%), and Mosaic Company (+7.6%) saw significant gains due to fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf region [1] Commodities - Gold prices have rebounded above $5,100 amid geopolitical tensions, although they are on track for a second consecutive weekly loss [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that at least 10 million barrels per day of oil supply has been curtailed due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a historic disruption in the global oil market [1] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 213,000, slightly better than forecasts, while continuing claims stood at 1.85 million [2] - Building permits for January fell by 5.4% to 1.38 million, while housing starts increased by 7.2% to 1.49 million, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [2] Investor Sentiment - There has been a notable shift in investor sentiment, with a majority long bias increasing in U.S. equity indices, particularly in the Nasdaq, which moved to 71% from 62% [2] - Commodities, particularly gold, have seen an extreme buy sentiment rise to 87% from 80%, reflecting increased demand amid market volatility [2]