Who Benefits If Fertitta Buys Caesars? 4 Stocks to Watch

Core Viewpoint - The probability of Tilman Fertitta acquiring Caesars Entertainment is currently at 61.5%, which could significantly reshape the competitive landscape in the gaming sector and impact various stakeholders, including VICI Properties and MGM Resorts [1][2]. Group 1: Caesars Entertainment - Caesars operates over 50 casino and hotel properties and reported $11.49 billion in revenue for full-year 2025, but carries $11.9 billion in debt and posted a net loss of $502 million [1]. - The stock price was around $19.70 at the time of the Q4 earnings filing, significantly lower than its 52-week high of $31.58, indicating a depressed valuation that has fueled acquisition speculation [1]. - Caesars Digital achieved a quarterly adjusted EBITDA record of $85 million in Q4 2025, up from $20 million in the previous year, highlighting a potential growth area [1]. Group 2: VICI Properties - VICI Properties owns the real estate for many of Caesars' key properties, with Caesars accounting for 39% of its annualized contractual rent, making it the largest tenant [1]. - The REIT generated approximately $4 billion in revenue for the full year and has raised its dividend for eight consecutive years, currently paying $0.45 per quarter [1]. - Analysts suggest that VICI has the most direct exposure to a potential ownership change, as it collects rent regardless of who operates the properties and holds call rights that could be valuable if a new owner pursues asset monetization [2]. Group 3: MGM Resorts - MGM Resorts is Caesars' primary competitor and could benefit from a distracted Caesars during a potential acquisition, allowing MGM to gain market share in Las Vegas and online gaming [1]. - MGM reported $17.54 billion in revenue for full-year 2025 and achieved a 20% growth in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA in Q4, despite challenges in Las Vegas [1]. - The digital segment, BetMGM, turned profitable with an operating income of $29.3 million, contrasting with a loss of $42.3 million in the prior year [1]. Group 4: Gaming and Leisure Properties - Gaming and Leisure Properties holds properties leased to Caesars, generating $22.5 million from its Caesars Master Lease in Q4 2025, but has a more diversified tenant base compared to VICI [1]. - The company reported a record $1.12 billion in full-year AFFO and has a committed pipeline of approximately $2.6 billion at a blended cap rate over 8%, indicating strong growth potential [1].