With a cautious eye on oil prices, Fed likely to hold rates next week following February's inflation reading

Core Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The Iran war is anticipated to increase headline inflation primarily due to rising oil prices, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, as indicated by February's data [1][2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain steady interest rates in the near term, monitoring oil prices and their impact on inflation and the economy [3] Inflation Metrics - The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month in February and 2.5% year-over-year, remaining consistent with January's figures [2] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is projected to be around 3% on a core basis, which is approximately half a percentage point higher than the CPI [5] Economic Projections - Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, compared to 2.5% for CPI, with some analysts forecasting it at 2.9% [6] - The Fed is not in a rush to make policy changes and will wait for more data on core PCE services inflation before making significant adjustments [6]