Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 13, 2026

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of Treasury yields, the implications of an inverted yield curve, and the influence of the Federal Funds Rate on mortgage rates, highlighting potential recession indicators and recent trends in fixed-rate mortgages. Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.28% as of March 13, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.73% and the 30-year yield was at 4.90% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows historical trends dating back to 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [1] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable recession indicator [1] - The 10-2 spread has been negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases [1] - Despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2024, mortgage rates have recently declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% according to Freddie Mac [1] - The article notes that Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] ETFs Related to Treasuries - Mentioned ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]