Sugar Prices Settle Higher as Crude Oil Soars

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices increased on Thursday, with May NY world sugar 11 closing up +0.13 (+0.91%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 closing up +0.70 (+0.17%) [1] - The rise in sugar prices was supported by a +7% surge in crude oil prices, which encourages sugar mills to divert cane crushing towards ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists forecast a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX anticipates a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] Group 3: Production Insights - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a +1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected +3.0% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT [3] - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South fell by -36% year-on-year in the second half of January, but cumulative output through January rose +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - India's sugar output from October 1 to February 28 was up +12% year-on-year to 24.75 MMT, with projections for 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, also up 12% year-on-year [5]