Iran War Drags Stocks Lower

Group 1: Energy Sector - Crude prices are supported as Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating US shipping efforts [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of nearly $150 per barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March [2] - The IEA reported that the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, with a projected cut of 8 million barrels per day this month [6] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index down -0.62% [5] - Stocks initially rose but retreated as crude oil prices rallied more than +3%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the war in Iran [4] - The US stock market is discounting a 1% chance for a -25 basis point FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting [12] Group 3: Economic Indicators - US personal spending rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.3% [8] - The January core PCE price index rose +3.1% year-over-year, marking the highest increase in 1.75 years [8] - Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.7% from a previously reported +1.4% [8] Group 4: Earnings Reports - Over 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 74% beating expectations, and S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4 [11] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6% [11] Group 5: Sector Movements - Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies saw gains, with Sandisk closing up more than +6% and Micron Technology up more than +4% [16] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose as Bitcoin increased more than +1%, with Galaxy Digital Holdings up more than +8% [17] - Mining stocks sold off as copper prices fell more than -2%, with Anglogold Ashanti Ltd down more than -9% [18]