Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International downgrades the rating of Baoshan International (03813) to "Neutral" and reduces the target price by 33.8% from HKD 0.74 to HKD 0.49 due to uncertainties in the company's recovery [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered by 6-8% and 24% respectively, reflecting updated store assumptions and same-store sales expectations [1] - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue and net profit of RMB 17.13 billion and RMB 210 million, representing year-on-year declines of 7.2% and 57.1% respectively, primarily due to offline channel drag, deeper discounts, and negative impacts from operational deleveraging [1] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - The overall discounting has deepened in low single digits, leading to a year-on-year decrease in gross margin by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5% [1] - The total expense ratio has slightly increased, resulting in operating profit margin and net profit margin declining by 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points to 2.1% and 1.2%, which is below previous expectations [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The company is still in an adjustment phase, with online channels not yet compensating for the weakness in offline channels [1] - Although there is a mild recovery trend in overall sales at the beginning of 2026, uncertainties in the external environment and industry competition remain [1]
交银国际：下调宝胜国际(03813)目标价至0.49港元 下调评级至“中性”