Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, March 16, 2026: Oil prices and the Fed aren't helping

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are increasing due to inflationary concerns, primarily driven by rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, and there are expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for an extended period [1] Current Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 6.08% and the 15-year fixed rate is 5.62% according to Zillow data [1][16] - National averages for various mortgage types include: - 30-year fixed: 6.08% - 20-year fixed: 6.06% - 15-year fixed: 5.62% - 5/1 ARM: 6.05% - 7/1 ARM: 6.03% - 30-year VA: 5.67% - 15-year VA: 5.32% - 5/1 VA: 5.24% [4] Mortgage Refinance Rates - Today's average mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with national averages rounded to the nearest hundredth [3] Adjustable Mortgage Rates - Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages but carry the risk of rate increases after the initial period [10][11] - The 5/1 ARM has a fixed rate for the first five years, after which it adjusts annually [10] Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Lenders offer the lowest rates to borrowers with higher down payments, excellent credit scores, and low debt-to-income ratios [13] - Options for reducing interest rates include paying for discount points at closing or utilizing temporary interest rate buydowns [14][15] Future Rate Predictions - The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts the 30-year mortgage rate to remain around 6.10% through 2026, while Fannie Mae predicts rates near 6% for the end of the year [18]