Each day the Strait of Hormuz stays closed could add $3–$5 to oil prices: Atlantic Council CEO

Group 1 - The U.S. administration believes it cannot shorten the military campaign against Iran, as doing so would lose a historic opportunity to degrade Iran's military capabilities [2] - The cost of oil and U.S. domestic politics are significant factors influencing the situation, with efforts being made to reassure the market that everything will be okay, contributing to a drop in oil prices [3][6] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an increase in oil prices by $3 to $5 per barrel for each day it remains closed, potentially reaching $150 per barrel if the situation persists for six weeks, which could trigger a global recession [5] Group 2 - The U.S. is working to form a coalition of allies to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, although some allies are hesitant to participate [4][5] - The U.S. is actively targeting Iranian capabilities that threaten shipping in the strait, although it is more challenging to address threats from drones and mines [8] - There are concerns that easing sanctions on Russia to allow oil sales could inadvertently fund Russia's military actions in Ukraine, creating secondary consequences [9][10]