Geopolitical Crises Have Rocked the S&P 500 Before. Every Single Time, Patient Investors Came Out Ahead.

Economic Impact of the War in Iran - The war in Iran has significantly affected the U.S. economy, with gas prices increasing by 17% since the conflict began [1] - Crude oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, with potential for further increases due to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil exports [1] Market Performance and Recession Concerns - The S&P 500 has declined by 3.1% over the past month and is down 3.8% from its January high, amid recession fears [2] - An economic model from the New York Fed indicated an 18.7% chance of a recession by January 2027, prior to the onset of the war [2] Historical Market Resilience - Historical data shows that patient investors tend to benefit during geopolitical crises, as the stock market often recovers even before a recession ends [3][4] - Research indicates that while stocks typically drop during the early stages of a recession, they often recover partially or fully before the recession concludes [4] Recent Recession Example - During the COVID-19 recession from February to April 2020, the S&P 500 fell by 33.9% and the Nasdaq by 30.3% [5] - By the end of April 2020, both indexes began to recover, with the Nasdaq less than 4% off its pre-recession level and the S&P 500 down less than 10% [6] Historical Context of Wars and Recessions - The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in September 2001 serves as a reminder that the U.S. was already in a recession, with stock indices declining since the dot-com bust in 2000 [7]